Thursday, June 23, 2016

Fact checking Trump

Yesterday, Trump read a speech from a teleprompter, and NPR has done a remarkable job fact checking it. Some excerpts of their annotated transcript below:
This includes fixing all of the many disaster trade deals. And they are disastrous. They are destroying our country. Because it's not just political system that's rigged, it's the whole economy.
It's rigged by big donors who want to keep wages down.
[Trump himself has said during this cycle that wages are "too high." He said it in a November debate in response to a question about raising the minimum wage, then repeated the point the next day on MSNBC's Morning Joe. Since then, he has walked that comment back, telling Meet The Press' Chuck Todd in May, "I have seen what's going on. And I don't know how people make it on $7.25 an hour." He added he would like to see an increase, but that states — not the federal government — should do it. — Danielle Kurtzleben]
It's rigged by big businesses who want to leave our country, fire our workers, and sell their products back into the U.S. with absolutely no consequences for them.
[Donald Trump has expressed great outrage over trade deals leading to the offshoring of American jobs. But when it comes to his own Trump-branded products, the vast majority are made overseas. — Tamara Keith]
It's rigged by bureaucrats who are trapping kids in failing schools. It's rigged against you-the American people. Hillary Clinton and as you know, most people know, she's a world-class liar. Just look at her pathetic email server statements, or her phony landing.
Or her phony landing in Bosnia where she said she was under attack. And the attack turned out to be young girls handing her flowers. A total and so - Look, this was one of the beauts. A total and self serving lie.
[The Washington Post Fact Checker did an excellent piece on this. And, yes, it was a four-pinocchio whopper. In AP video from the time, she does appear to be holding a bouquet of flowers. — Tamara Keith]
Brian Williams' career was destroyed for saying less.
[Brian Williams did lose his post as anchor of NBC Nightly News, the network's signature program. He's now an anchor on MSNBC. Their inaccurate claims about being under fire in aircraft were remarkably similar. — Tamara Keith]
Just remember that.
Yesterday, she even tried to attack me and many businesses.
[True, she did. — Tamara Keith]
But here, and this is the way it is, is bottom line. I started off in Brooklyn, New York, not so long ago, with a small loan and built a business that today is worth well over 10 billion dollars.
[It depends on your definition of small. Trump says the loan was $1 million, which by most standards is not small. Additionally, the Washington Post fact checker finds that Trump benefited from significantly more help than that from his father, a successful real estate developer. — Tamara Keith]
And that's the kind of thinking we need in our leadership of our country. I've always had talent for building businesses, and importantly, for creating jobs. That's a talent our country desperately needs. I'm running to end unfairness and put you the American worker first. It's about time.
We're going to put America first. And we're going to make America great again. This election will decide whether we are ruled by the people or by the politicians.
Here is my promise to the American voter.
If I'm elected President, I will end the special interest monopoly in Washington D.C. Very important.
[Donald Trump has said that he loves "the idea of campaign finance reform" and regularly decries the influence of money in politics, but he has yet to outline how he would "end the special interest monopoly in Washington, D.C." His website does not list campaign finance reform, money in politics or checking the influence of lobbyists in the section devoted to issues. His campaign chairman Paul Manafort was formerly a partner in a successful lobbying firm. — Tamara Keith]
The other candidate in this race has spent her entire life making money for special interests. And I will tell you, she's made plenty of money for them. And she's been taking plenty of money out for herself. Hillary Clinton has perfected the politics of personal profit and even theft. She ran the State Department like her own personal hedge fund, doing favors for oppressive regimes. And many others, and really, many, many others in exchange for cash. Pure and simple folks. Pure and simple.
Then when she left she made $21.6 million giving speeches to Wall Street banks and other special interests. And in less than two years secret speeches that she doesn't want to reveal under any circumstances to the public. I wonder why. Together she and Bill made $153 million giving speeches to lobbyists, CEOs, and foreign governments in the years since 2001.
[According to CNN, the Clintons did earn $153 million in speaking fees since 2001. Bill Clinton earned the bulk of that money. Hillary earned $21.7 million TOTAL. According to CNN it was just $1.8 million — still not tiny — which came from big banks. It's unclear where the rest came from (Trump would argue it was all some sort of "special interest") but it seems the bulk was not from Wall Street, as Trump is clearly implying. — Will Huntsberry]
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Our country will be better off when we start making our own products again. Bringing our once great manufacturing capabilities back to the shores.
[According to a report from Michael Hicks, Ball State professor, 9 out 10 manufacturing jobs have been lost to mechanization, not trade policies. "No matter how you measure it, 2015 was the record year for manufacturing production in the USA. Right now manufacturing in Indiana and the USA is at record levels. There's no ambiguity on this... To be sure, our trade deficits have cost us manufacturing jobs. The high-end estimates are that today we have 1.5 million fewer manufacturing jobs across the nation because of foreign trade. All the other 6 million or so lost manufacturing jobs are due to mechanization, better technology and better production practices. Today's typical factory workers make twice as much 'stuff' in an hour as they did in 1977. For every manufacturing job lost to trade, nearly 9 have been lost to machines. But trade also creates jobs. We have 7 million more transportation and logistics jobs alone, likely attributable to trade since the 1970s." — Will Huntsberry]
I mean we have to bring our manufacturers back to the United States. Desperately needed. Desperately we need those jobs. And we need it even from our psyche.
One of the really great things and one of the first major bills that George Washington signed. Was amazing when I saw this for first time. The encouragement and protection of manufacturing in America. Our first Republican president, Abraham Lincoln, warned us by saying: The abandonment of the protective policy by the American government will produce want and ruin among our people. In other words, we have to protect our country. I have decided and visited cities and towns across America, all across America. And seen the devastation caused by the trade policies of BIll and Hillary Clinton. And it's total devastation. All over New York. All over Pennsylvania. All over New England. All over the country.
Hillary Clinton supported Bill Clinton's disastrous and totally disastrous NAFTA. Just like she supported China's entrance into the World Trade Organization.
[It's very hard to tease out the exact effects of NAFTA because of the many economic factors at play. However, by several nonpartisan analyses, it is not "disastrous." In 2003, the Congressional Budget Office characterized the 1994 agreement as having a "very small positive effect on U.S. gross domestic product." A 2015 study from the Congressional Research Service likewise characterized the effect on the economy as "relatively small" and also noted that it's difficult to put exact numbers on the effect. They added, "In reality, NAFTA did not cause the huge job losses feared by the critics or the large economic gains predicted by supporters."
One additional bit of context: It's true that trade deals, broadly speaking, are sometimes disastrous on the micro level — that is, a trade deal can be disastrous for a person whose job is moved to another country. But on the macro level, trade deals often provide broader, less readily visible benefits (like cheaper goods for U.S. consumers). — Danielle Kurtzleben]
We've lost nearly one-third of our manufacturing jobs since these two Hillary-backed agreements were signed.
[U.S. employment in manufacturing has dropped by 27 percent since January 1994 when NAFTA took effect. Since 2010 jobs in manufacturing have seen a slight uptick. — Tamara Keith]
Among the worst we've ever done. Among the most destructive agreements we've ever signed.
Our trade deficit with China soared 40 percent during Hillary Clinton's time as Secretary of State. A disgraceful performance for which she should not be congratulated but rather scorned.
[The U.S. trade deficit with China grew by approximately 39 percent from 2009 to 2012, the years that Clinton was secretary of state. However, it would be hard to put much responsibility for U.S. trade policy and the imbalance on the secretary of state. — Tamara Keith
As the AP pointed out when Trump attacked Clinton on the U.S.'s trade deficit with China, "In her role as the nation's top diplomat, Clinton had no direct control over the difference in the cost of U.S. imports from China versus its exports to the nation. — Danielle Kurtzleben]
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Though I was not in government service, I was among earliest to criticize the rush to war. And yes, even before the war ever started.
[Politifact has rated this claim as False, saying they "didn't find any examples of Trump unequivocally denouncing the war until a year after the war began." In fact, in Sept. 2002 he told Howard Stern, "Yeah, I guess so" when questioned as to whether he supported the invasion of Iraq. — Jessica Taylor]
But Hillary Clinton learned nothing from Iraq. Because when she got into power she couldn't wait to rush us off to war in Libya. She lacks the temperament and the judgement and the competence to lead our country. She should not be president under any circumstances.
In the words of Secret Service agent posted outside the Oval Office. Somebody that saw her a lot.
[According to a Politico report, the Association of Former Agents of the United States Secret Service has put out a statement questioning whether that agent could possibly have been stationed where he said he was stationed, and whether he could have seen what he claims. — Tamara Keith]
And knows her probably better than almost anybody. 'She simply lacks the integrity and temperament to serve in the office. From bottom of my soul, I know this to be true. Her leadership style, volcanic, impulsive, disdainful, and disdainful of the rules, set for everyone else hasn't changed one bit.'
Perhaps the most terrifying thing of Hillary Clinton's foreign policy is that she refuses to acknowledge the threat posed radical Islam.
In fact, Hillary Clinton supports a radical 550 percent increase in Syrian refugees coming into the United States. And that's an increase over President Obama's already high number.
[Politifact has rated this "mostly true" — Clinton said during a Sept. 2015 appearance on Face the Nation that she wanted to increase the number of Syrian refugees allowed in to somewhere between 10,000 to 65,000 people In 2015, the U.S. allowed in about 2,000. So that would be more than a 500 percent increase. — Jessica Taylor
As NPR's Michele Kelemen has recently fact-checked, the high number of refugees that Trump claims the Obama administration is allowing into the country is described as more of a trickle by activists working on behalf of refugees. -Arnie Seipel]
Under her plan, we would admit hundreds of thousands of refugees from the most dangerous countries on Earth with no way to screen who they are, what they are, what they believe, where they come from.
[This repeats a claim that Trump made in is speech right after the Orlando attacks, which was false. There is indeed a lengthy system in place, which begins with the UN identifying people as refugees. Their names and fingerprints are then run through criminal and terrorism background checks, and are cross-referenced with classified material. The entire process takes about one to two years. — Jessica Taylor]
Already, hundreds of recent immigrants and their children have been convicted of terror activity inside the United States.
[A 2015 Migration Policy Institute study found that just three resettled refugees had been arrested on terrorism charges, though this depends on the definition of "refugee" — for example, they did not count the Tsarnaev brothers of the Boston Marathon bombing because they had been brought to the U.S. as kids after their parents had been granted asylum. Politifact found that "about 140 migrants have been charged with or are credibly believed to have been involved in jihadist extremist activity in the United States since the World Trade Center attacks. Some number more — up to a maximum of 184 additional individuals — are children of immigrants" Those are incomplete, so it's unclear how large the numbers are. — Jessica Taylor]
The father of the Orlando shooter was a Taliban supporter from Afghanistan. One of the most repressive anti-gay and anti-woman regimes on earth.
[In an interview with CNN, the shooter's father condemned the Taliban, and CNN reported that one of the quotes where it seemed he had sympathized with the terrorist group had been mis-translated. He called these groups "the enemy of humanity." — Jessica Taylor]
This is just a taste. Read the whole annotated transcript here. But his closing is a thing of ---well, it's a thing:
Americans, Americans, the people that we love. Americans. America first. Make our country great again. Americans are going to start believing in the future of our country.
We are going to make America rich again.
We are going to make America safe again.
We are going to make America great again. And great again for everyone. Everyone. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you very much everybody. I appreciate it.

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